Beginners Luck Poker
The World's Best Poker Player Has Beginner's Luck and $8.4 Million By John Walters On 11/6/13 at 2:02 PM EST Just a year ago, Ryan Riess had less than $400 in the bank. Unfortunately, in poker that same inexperience can be to the new players’ advantage because in a single session of poker, luck can work against you. It’s important to remember that just like in any session of poker, you should be making decisions based on expected value. You can sometimes get unlucky against a beginner because they are not. This free Texas Hold'em cheat sheet has now helped over 100,000 poker beginners drastically improve their results at the poker tables. Massive Profit at the Micros is perfect for poker beginners because I explain to you step by step how I created some of the best results in online poker history at the lower stakes.
We all know that both skill and luck affect how well we do as poker players. But many people seem to misunderstand the idea that your skill determines how much luck you need to rely upon. If you are skillful enough to understand how your opponents play, you can often wait for them to make their favorite mistakes and thus reduce the effect that luck has on your results.
Many of us make slightly positive-EV but unnecessary shoves against opponents who play 'face-up,' and then blame bad luck when we lose. What we should be doing instead is figuring out how they play so that we can take less risky and more profitable lines against them.
One example of this kind of adjustment is not three-bet shoving 25 big blinds with a hand like K-Q-suited over an open against a guy who makes calling mistakes with an A-x heavy range. Instead against such an opponent we should be three-betting smaller and then taking it down with a flop continuation bet whenever he misses (if you know, that is, that he is unlikely to four-bet light preflop or play too sticky postflop).
Both plays are +EV, but one relies more on luck than the other. If you know how your opponent plays, then you can avoid some slightly +EV all-in gambles and instead depend on skill to generate even larger edges.
So a question arises: When can we rely on skill to generate these large edges, and when must we instead rely on luck?
Here are a few considerations that have served me well when answering that question in the small stakes tournaments I play.
Quality and Quantity of Players in the Pot
If you are in a heads-up pot with an equally skilled player, then obviously you have to rely on luck since neither player has much of an edge. No one wants to give an inch in these confrontations, so sometimes they result in big, high variance pots. The best you can do is play as close as you can to game theoretically optimal (GTO) poker and let the cards fall where they may.
Beginners Luck Poker Games
This situation can lead to some unreasonable tilt — for instance, when you correctly bluff off a big stack into a fellow reg who then correctly makes a sigh-call with the top of his range. If both players are equally skilled, then this sort of GTO trainwreck is an unavoidable part of poker. It should no more tilt you than losing in a fair coin-flipping game. In fact, you should treat it like the people do who play the lottery and lose with a smile. At the end of the day, gambling is gambling, but at least you had a much better shot at winning than they did.
The same cannot be said for a heads-up pot against a player against whom you have a massive edge. This is not the time to gamble and rely on luck. If he is the type to make big calling mistakes, for example, then obviously you should not make big GTO bluffs against him. Instead, delay putting the chips in until you have a value hand just above what you believe he will call.
In multi-way pots, I tend to rely more on luck for a few reasons. First, most of us are not skilled in these sort of pots. The additional players make the game tree so complex that even our GTO solvers cannot handle it, so don't assume your relatively feeble human brain knows what the best play is in every situation. That's the bad news.
The good news is that these pots often contain many bad players who called with hands that cannot stand a lot of heat. I take advantage of this by making big squeeze plays and if I have to get it in, at least the dead money will subsidize my gamble and often turn a dicey situation into a profitable one.
Field Size and Payout Structure
Tournaments with big guarantees and small buy-ins result in big fields. The prizes are usually top heavy and it takes a lot of luck to reach the final table almost regardless of the field's average skill level.
If you are too cautious in these games, eventually you will find yourself shorter-stacked than most players around you and pressured to make a move because of the escalating blinds. Sooner or later, you'll have to gamble and go all in.
For that reason, it's nice to have a big stack so that you can survive one or two of these confrontations. I play a little faster and welcome slightly +EV gambles early in these tournaments, because I'd rather double or bust trying to get a big stack than grind a short stack for hours hoping to get a min-cash that usually isn't much more than the buy-in I invested.
On the other hand, tournaments with small guarantees and big buy-ins attract small fields. This results in lower variance and allows you to be a little more patient. I try to pick my spots carefully in smaller-field tournaments, because oftentimes I can cash with a median stack and still have enough chips to make a final table run once we get into the money.
Far From, Close To, and On the Bubble Play
Far from the bubble, I rely more heavily on either skill or luck depending on the factors above. As I get closer to the bubble, say for example, the point where half the remaining players get paid, I start to make some adjustments.
When I have a short stack, this is the time I welcome variance and gamble for a stack that can cash. With a medium stack, I gamble for a stack that can become a big stack while trying to save a few chips to cash with in case things do not work out. With a big stack, I settle down in anticipation of the bubble play when around 80% of the remaining players get paid. This is sort of the calm before the storm because at that point, I plan to apply tons of ICM pressure on my handcuffed opponents.
If instead I am a medium stack on the bubble and the big stacks are playing well, I am more or less forced to fold into the money. As passive as this sounds, it is really just a skillful execution of correct ICM play and I benefit from having opponents who do not understand it. With a short stack, I may need to continue gambling and relying on luck to take me over the threshold.
Conclusion
It is true that both skill and luck are huge parts of poker, but they lie on a continuum and you get to decide which of the two is more important to depend on at any given moment.
The problem is that most of us learned poker from the perspective of making correct plays with our cards instead of attacking incorrect plays our opponents make with theirs. This is a defensive position that forces us to rely on luck more often than is necessary.
It's not until after you have developed these fundamentals that you begin to think offensively and deviate from them in order to attack your opponents who do not use them to protect themselves.
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tournament strategyno-limit hold'emskill-vs.-luckexpected valuebubble strategyICMGTOpreflop strategypostflop strategyequity
Welcome to our first poker lesson. This is the introduction to a wealth of knowledge about the most exciting card game ever devised – poker. Either you already know it or will learn it as you go through these lessons offered up by Pokerology.com. The “it” I refer to is that poker is an incredibly enjoyable, challenging and addictive game. Once the poker bug has bitten you there is seldom a cure. If that is true, and based upon the number of years I have played and enjoyed the game, I believe it to be, then it is worth your time and effort to play the game well.
You will soon learn that there are many different variations of poker, but the one thing they have in common is that you have to use your best five cards to make your hand. All forms of poker use a fifty two card deck made up of ranks starting with a two, commonly called a deuce, and continuing by number through ten and then in order comes the Jack, Queen, King and Ace. There are four different suits; Spades; , Hearts; , Diamonds; and Clubs; , all of which are of equal value in poker. So, four different suits of thirteen different ranks make the fifty two cards in a complete deck.
The Object of Poker
The object of poker is very simple – to win the money in the centre of the table, called the pot, which contains the sum of the bets that have been made by the participants of that hand. Players make their bets or wagers on the belief they have the best hand or in the hopes they can make a better hand give up, abdicating the pot to them. There is an old poker expression which states that a bet saved is a bet earned. This underscores the concept of discretion being the better part of valour and not continuing to call bets made by others, unless you believe you have the best hand. You may have heard the same concept expressed by the sage advice of “don’t throw good money after bad”.
Where did it Begin?
Some people believe the origins of poker reach back hundreds of years to Persia where a poker-like game was played. While this may be true, London based author Des Wilson’s Ghosts at the Table is a fascinating account of the genesis of poker which he has chronicled from the American Old West to the Mississippi riverboats to the Texas road gamblers to modern day Las Vegas. Of one thing there is no doubt – poker has become an international phenomenon. The World Series of Poker which is regarded by many as the Holy Grail of the game draws players from all over the world. The American Old West has turned global and poker is everywhere.
A Game of People Played with Cards
It has often been said that poker is not a card game but a game of people played with cards. Anthony Holden, British author of both Big Deal and Bigger Deal had this to say regarding people and poker:
“Whether he likes it or not, a man’s character is stripped bare at the poker table. If the other players read him better than he does, he has only himself to blame. Unless he is both able and prepared to see himself as others do, flaws and all, he will be a loser in cards, as in life”.
If you dedicate yourself to working through all of the offered lessons coupled with playing time to gain the requisite experience, you will come to recognize just how true Mr. Holden’s quote is.
Beginners Luck Pokefind Quest
Is Poker Luck or Skill Dependent?
Many people who are not familiar with poker and are generally anti gambling just lump poker with other games of chance and believe success in the game is largely dependent on luck. On the other hand, we here at Pokerology understand the game and, while granting that there is certainly an element of luck involved, believe knowledge and skill will prevail in the long run.
The best way to prove this assertion is to compare poker, a game of skill, to casino games which have a built in house advantage. Even in a casino game which cannot be beat over time, a player’s knowledge of the game coupled with the discipline to control one’s emotions will benefit that gambler’s likelihood of winning or at least minimizing his loses. Now the same can be said about poker in regards to a player needing to be knowledgeable and in control of his emotions.
The main difference in the role that luck plays between poker and casino games is the number of trials. In poker, while a knowledgeable player can lose in the short term he should be expected to win over time. This, of course, assumes that he is not playing with superior competition which is outplaying him. In casino games, while one can win easily in the short term, over time the house edge or percentage will grind a player down and ultimately he will lose.
The conclusion to this debate is simple – if you are truly a knowledgeable and disciplined poker player, you will have to be unlucky to lose while a player of games of pure chance needs to be lucky to win. You have come to the right place to deepen your knowledge of the game and hone the necessary skills to enable you to be a long term winner in the game of poker.
Is Poker Good For You?
Poker is good for you. A bold statement you say? I can name several ways this statement is true. The game of poker is challenging and therefore keeps your mental acuity sharp. It supplies the adrenalin rush of competition that most gamesmen crave. It can fill your time with a camaraderie that can be rewarding. Last but not least, played well, poker can provide you with the extra coin of the realm which one can always find a use for. All in all it’s not a bad group of rewards for playing a card game.
Getting Started…
If you’re totally new to poker then there is a lot to learn. I strongly recommend you work your way through the poker lessons on Pokerology.com by following the study guide. The study guide has been carefully put together to help guide you step by step and acquire the knowledge that’s needed to become a winning poker player.
We also strongly recommend you take this opportunity to open an online poker account and start playing just as soon as you feel comfortable. There are many sites to choose from but please see our list of the top online poker rooms. Studying the poker lessons here at Pokerology is crucial, but you will learn so much more by combining this with actual playing time. If you’re worried about the money, then don’t be – it need not cost you anything since you can try your luck at the play money tables until you’re comfortable playing for real money
Poker professional Mike Sexton is fond of saying that poker “can take a moment to learn but a lifetime to master”. I agree, but I don’t share Mr. Sexton’s thought on the subject to dissuade you from moving forward but rather to encourage you to embrace the poker experience as it demonstrates just how rich and rewarding the game can be. The analogy I enjoy is that the game is like an onion – as you peel back each layer of knowledge you find another layer and another layer. Once you begin the journey you’ll never stop learning.
Enjoy the journey!
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By Tom 'TIME' Leonard
Beginners Luck Poker Game
Tom has been writing about poker since 1994 and has played across the USA for over 40 years, playing every game in almost every card room in Atlantic City, California and Las Vegas.